泽米尔·阿万:纵观全球疫情如何影响地缘政治

泽米尔·阿万( Zamir Ahmed Awan)

 

The outbreak of Coronavirus may impact on geopolitics and after the overcome on pandemic, the new world order may emerge into a complete different shape. The leadership role may shift to other nation or nations. Current Super Powers leaders may not sustain their hegemony and shift to other nation/nations. UN structure, International Organization, may face severe challenges and reforms. The US was enjoying a status of “Super Power” after the World War II (WWII), especially after the disintegration of former-USSR on 26 December 1991, the US was the only “Super Power”. After having enjoyed prestigious status for so long, it was not easy for the US to digest “Rise of China”.

冠状病毒的爆发可能会对地缘政治产生影响。在战胜大流行之后,新的世界秩序可能会以一种完全不同的形式出现。领导权可能会转移到其他国家。当前的超级大国领导人可不再维持他们的霸权,并转向其他国家。联合国作为一个国际组织,可能面临严峻的挑战和改革。美国在第二次世界大战后,特别是 1991 年12 月 26 日前苏联解体后,一直处于“超级大国”的地位。在享有久负盛名之后,很难消化“中国崛起”。

Although the Chinese economy kept on growing at an unprecedented very high rate for almost 4 decades, the benchmarks of surpassing the German Economy in 2006 and the Japanese Economy in 2010, were the most critical moments, when the whole world was awakened and attracted global attention. The US was feeling a threat from China and initiated measures to resist Chinese growth. The US kept on posing China a threat to Europe too, and

teaming up with its allies to “Contain China” and “Counter Russia”, as China was an “Economic Power” and Russia as“Military Power”.

The US imposed trade war, media war, political and diplomatic war against China, but could not achieve its desired objectives.

尽管近 40 年来,中国经济一直保持着前所未有的高速增长,但 2006 年超过德国、2010 年超过日本的基准还是成了最关键的时刻。整个世界都被唤醒了,这引起了全球的关注。美国感觉到了来自中国的威胁,开始采取措施压制中国的增长。同时,美国也继续对欧洲构成威胁,并与盟国合作“遏制中国”和“对抗俄罗斯”,因为中国是“经济大国”,俄罗斯是“军事大国”。美国对中国发动贸易战、媒体战、政治外交战,但都没有达到预期目的。

The outbreak of Covid-19 has challenged the whole world and is a serious threat to humanity. The latest on Covid-19:

Confirmed cases: 375,498, Confirmed deaths: 16,362, number of Countries,

areas or territories with cases: 196 (Figures keep on changing with the passage of time).

Covid-19 的爆发对全世界都是一种挑战,是对人类的严重威胁。19 日公布的最新病例:确诊病例 375,498 例,确诊死亡病例16,362 例,确诊国家、地区或地区数目 196例(数字随时间不断变化)。

What will be the possible impact on geopolitics? Who will dominate the World? New world order? Several similar questions are in our minds. No one can say something definitive, but based on our experience and some assumption, we may conclude that anyone who may win over COVID-19, will get recognition as a leader. One approach is to find cure, medicines or Vaccines for COVID-19. All nations are struggling hard to develop a cure or vaccine. Definitely, the developed and advanced countries are having more chances of success. Who may win this race, may gain supremacy or monopoly. Not only gaining economic benefits, but also political benefits.

对地缘政治会产生什么影响? 谁将主宰世界? 世界新秩序是怎样的? 我们心里也有类似的问题。虽然没有人能给出确定的答案,但根据我们的经验和一些假设,我们可以得出这样的结论: 任何可能击溃 COVID-19 支持的人,都将获得成为领导者的认可。

一种方法是为 COVID-19 寻找治疗方案、药物或疫苗,所有国家都在努力研发。毫无疑问,发达国家有更多的成功机会。谁可能赢得这场竞赛,谁就可能获得霸权或垄断。不仅获得了经济利益,也获得了政治利益。

On the other hand, COVID-19 has forced life at stand-still with almost no economic activities. Due to lockdowns, life is almost at a halt and all businesses and industries are almost standstills. It has already impacted adversely on an individual’s economy, national economies, and the whole global economy.

另一方面,COVID-19 迫使人们生活停滞不前,几乎没有任何经济活动。由于封锁,生活几乎不在运转,所有的企业和行业几乎都难于幸免。它已经对个人经济、国家经济和整个全球经济产生了负面影响。

China was the first county to experience the economic meltdown due to the outbreak. Due to comprehensive lockdown, Industry was closed, trade was suspended, flights and shipping were suspended. Caused a huge dent to the Chinese economy. But having overcome the COVID-19, life has been resumed to its normal routine, Industry has been opened. Although International flights, shipping, and International trade are facing limitations.

中国是第一个因疫情爆发而经历经济崩溃的国家。由于全面封锁,工业关闭,贸易暂停,航班和航运暂停,给中国经济造成了巨大的损失。但是在克服了困难之后,生活又恢复了正常,工业也开放了。尽管国际航班、航运和国际贸易仍面临限制。

Yet, China is exporting medical equipment like Ventilators, Masks, Sanitizers, Testing Kits and Emergency Supplies to almost 81 countries around the world.

然而,中国正在向全球近 81 个国家出口呼吸机、口罩、消毒剂、检测仪器和应急用品等医疗设备。

While the rest of the world is struggling to fight against the COVID-19 and may spend more time to overcome completely. Life is a standstill in most of countries, economic activities ate almost negligible. The global economy is suffering adversely, especially the EU and the US are suffering huge losses. The US Senate has passed 2 trillion Dollars package to fight the outbreak. Does the American Economy have such a huge fiscal space? Merely printing more Dollars means many other serious consequences. It is the private sector, who contribute to the EU or American Economy, and the private sector has always its own limitations. Governments may find legal limitations or may not have the capacity to compensate for the private sector. While in China, most of the Industry/ Business are state-owned or state has ways and means to compensate them. The Chinese economy was strong enough to support its Corona affected Industry or traders. It is rather too early to reach any conclusion, but it seems China has the capacity and experience to dominate the new world order after the pandemicis over.

世界上的其他国家还在与病毒作斗争的。他们可能要花更多的时间来彻底克服它。在大多数国家,生活停滞不前,经济活动几乎可以忽略不计。当前,全球经济形势不佳,特别是欧盟和美国正在遭受巨大损失。美国参议院已经通过了 2 万亿美元的方案来对抗疫情。然而,美国经济有这么大的财政空间吗? 仅仅是印刷更多的美元就意味着许多其他严重的后果。对欧盟或美国经济做出贡献的是私营部门,而私营部门总是有其自身的局限性。政府可能会发现法律限制,或者可能没有能力补偿私营部门。而在中国,大多数的工业/商业是国有的或国家有办法和手段来补偿他们。中国经济足够强大,足以支撑受疫情影响的行业或贸易商。当然,现在下结论还为时过早,但中国似乎有能力和经验在疫情结束后主导新的世界秩序。

Zamir Ahmed Awan:Former counsellor of Pakistan Embassy to China; Sinologist, non-resident research fellow of CCG (center for China and globalization), National University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan, deputy director of China Studies Research Center, China-Pakistan cultural consultant.

泽米尔·阿万:巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原参赞、汉学家、巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡国立科技大学 CCG(中国与全球化中心)非常驻研究员、中国学研究中心副主任、中巴文化顾问。

 

文章来源:Tunnel 隧道 2020年3月28日


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