Why Canada-China’s new Strategic Partnership?

Xiaoming Guo 郭晓明

Q: What’s behind China and Canada’s attempts to repair their relations?

A:

When Trump said the 51st state, he was not joking. We observe that the kidnapping of Madoro triggered the hurried state visit of Carney to China. Carney visits China earlier than planned.

Trump said he would use economic coercion to make Canada the 51st state. Trump said USMCA has no value for the US. Trump has the will and determination to bring all the manufacturing jobs to the US from Canada and Mexico.

The Canadian economy relies heavily on trade, and 78% of Canadian exports are to the US. This attachment is very vulnerable to Trump’s threats.

Carney had visited numerous countries in Europe and Asia in 2025 in search of business and trade opportunities. Carney has negotiated with Trump in order to reach a trade deal with the US in 2025. Carney has exhausted all the potential options, and China become the only option left.

Attaching the Canadian economy to the US and Canada loses its independence. Being friendly with both the US and China can sustain Canada’s independence. Canada has one role to play in international politics, and that is to bridge the US and China. Pakistan is a good example. A middle power should play the role of a bridge between the US and China. A good relationship between the US and China is in Canada’s national interest.

Canada is rich in resources and is at the forefront of science and technology. Canada is a rich and innovative country. With such a favorable endorsement, Canadians should have a better and better life as technology advances. Yet, when technology is advancing in leaps and bounds, Canadian living standard erodes, with increasing homelessness and unaffordable housing. The culprit is the NAFTA and USMCA. These are not free trade agreements. These are North America’s isolationism and protectionism. This isolationism reduced the market share of Canada in the world, especially in the Chinese market.

Since the Pivot to Asia of Obama, the G7 countries all accumulated debts to a very high level. Since 2020, all G7 countries have experienced inflation that triggered a series of social problems. This is the result of containing China. Decouple and de-risk China is exiting the Chinese market. That is a big blow to the Canadian economy. Innovation without a large enough market is commercially unviable.

Carney’s move to repair the relationship between Canada and China is strategically important. It is for the survival of Canada. It is a must.