让加拿大再次强大（Make Canada Great Again）

Xiaoming Guo 郭晓明

一、此前美国贸易保护主义的地缘政治武器化

美国以往的保护主义措施并不是经济措施，而是地缘政治措施，即借保护主义之名，行打压中国经济之实。从奥巴马上台美国就开始宣称要重振制造业，十五年过去，美国制造业却每况愈下。从美国对中国的反倾销反补贴到301调查等等贸易投资壁垒，看似保护美国制造业，其实是为了围堵中国。为了围堵中国，美国还鼓动其盟友及其一些摇摆国家与中国经济脱钩。整个操作的实际效果，其实就是把中国在美国的市场份额分给了盟友和为难中国的国家。即中国在美国占有的市场减少了，但美国工业的市场并没有增加，美国市场只是在各国中重新分配了一下。所以美国制造业没有起色。当然，美国经济空心化有很多复杂因素，但就美国关税和贸易壁垒而言，这些关税和壁垒只是地缘政治武器，并非重振美国制造的实施。以国家安全为由，美国自己禁止使用华为设备，也强压盟友拒绝使用华为设备，把华为排挤出西方市场，华为的美国市场就让给了苹果，三星，爱立信等。

美加墨贸易协定（USMCA）就是这种地缘政治安排。这份协议并不促进自由贸易，而是把中国排挤出北美市场。所以这个协议名为自贸，实为北美保护主义，建立一个排斥性北美市场。要劝盟友与中国经济脱钩，就得给盟友好处。没有了中国在北美的竞争，减少了北美市场竞争，对美加墨制造有好处。而中国让出的美国市场，也使得加拿大在美国的市场中多分一杯羹。这不是市场经济，而是寻租经济。加拿大以助力美国压制中国邀功，得到美国市场的优惠。

对中国贸易壁垒，对加拿大贸易敞开，这就是美国政府强制的市场分配，中国留下的市场，被美国盟友们分了，美国制造业回流依然不显著。这是地缘政治挂帅的结果。克林顿有句名言：关键在于经济，蠢货！（It’s the economy, stupid）。美国制造业回流的困境，关键在于一切以打压中国为战略核心，制定的政策把经济放到了次要地位。

二、特朗普关税2.0

2025年特朗普上任美国总统，新官上任三把火，开始了认真的保护主义措施。他吸取了上次贸易战的谬误，领悟了克林顿总统的名言，这次是经济优先于意识形态。如果地缘政治玩得美国经济越来越差，政府债务越来越高，政府的能力就越来越地下，这有什么国家利益可言？国家利益不就是要国家经济越来越好的吗？所以，这次特朗普关税是对所有盟友都征。这是经济学意义上实实在在的贸易壁垒。美国搞保护主义是不对的，损害全球经济利益。但是，仅以制造业回流而言，对所有国家都征相同的税的对的，是正确的经济措施。

但是，加拿大和欧洲感觉很冤枉，特朗普怎么能这样背叛盟友呢？ 盟友帮助美国压制中国，美国就应该照顾盟友呀。所以，加拿大政客们第一反应，就是和美国套打压中国的盟友近乎，都拿压制中国来劝说美国取消对加拿大的关税。不当家不知柴米贵，美国是大有大的难处。特朗普这次对华政策，是要优先做强美国，以逆转中国上升和美国下降的趋势。特朗普1.0是优先削弱中国，特朗普2.0是优先做强美国。优先做强美国有个政治好处，即使中美大势无法扭转，也能使得美国更加强大，以实现他竞选“使美国再次强大”的承诺。以美国的霸权势力，对付中国不行，对付盟友有问题吗？逆转中美大势，能压制中国发展同时美国发展就最好，那是双管齐下。但是，如果美国发展慢了，压制中国又压不住，那么，优先发展美国不失为一个退而求其次的策略。这符合特朗普“美国优先”（AF）和“使得美国再次强大”（MAGA）的竞选口号。

三、加拿大的出路

加拿大应该认清特朗普AF和MAGA政策，认清特朗普2.0和特朗普1.0的区别，认清经济优于意识形态的政策转变。渥太华一直是华盛顿政策的支持者，这次就应该跟着转型，接受克林顿总统经济为根本的教导，不能以意识形态损害加拿大经济利益。既然美国已经不在给经济寻租的好处，加拿大也没有义务继续牺牲自己经济利益来维护美国地缘政治利益。上行下效，既然美国可以和俄罗斯和好，为什么加拿大不能和中国和好呢？美国和俄罗斯是处于代理人战争状态的冲突对立中，加中冲突有美俄冲突严重吗？当年尼克松访华，中美意识形态还处于尖锐对立状态中，还没有外交关系，如今加美和加中都有外交关系，加中关系并不是没有退路，为什么还抱着特朗普1.0政策去和特朗普2.0讨价还价呢？识时务者为俊杰，加拿大政客们必须恶补认清形势这一课。

加拿大政客们和特朗普最理性和尊严的讨价还价，就是最惠国待遇。特朗普不是对所有国家加关税吗？加拿大要的就要求美国对加拿大加的税不应该比其它国家的关税高。就是要求特朗普不要有歧视加拿大的政策，只要是美国对所有国家一视同仁，不歧视加拿大，那么，加拿大近水楼台，和美国产业链深度融合，竞争美国市场不至于输给美国以外的其它国家。

四、加拿大强国之路

一旦美国关税打棒大下来，加拿大制造业流失到美国是必然的。但是，加拿大也不是一点办法都没有的。加拿大资源禀赋优越，盘活加拿大丰富的资源就可以使得加拿大经济强大，甚至可以重振加拿大制造业。国家要有尊严，加拿大不能乞讨美国优先加拿大，而应该自强不息。过去十多年加拿大经济乏善可陈，就是因为被绑上了美国的战车，画地为牢，资源进入不了国际市场，加拿大制造也丢失了中国这个大市场。美国市场是消费市场，对加拿大高科技并不是太重要，而中国是制造大国，高科技市场非常大。

加拿大黑莓手机是智能手机的鼻祖，如今加拿大满市场的韩国三星手机，为什么？原因是三星愿意进入中国市场，加拿大不愿意进入中国市场。黑莓后来想进入中国市场是已经晚了。加拿大首创智能手机，如今一个手机品牌都没有，就是拒绝中国市场的恶果。加拿大最引以为豪的民族品牌Tim Hortons一直不肯进入中国市场，后来卖给了Burger King。买卖能成交，就是买卖双方都觉得划算。为什么Tim Hortons觉得卖得划算？因为这个资产的现金流的可以计算的，长时间的经验积累，肯定知道现金流有多少，值多少钱。如果买方出钱高于这价值，就值得卖。买方为什么觉得买的划算呢，为什么会觉得买得物超所值呢？因为Burger King买了Tim Hortons以后就进入了中国市场，大发横财。品牌是知识产权，是无形资产。知识产业不会因为用得多了价值就减少了，不像有形资产，用一些就少一些，知识产业怎么用都不会少。设计一张图纸，造一座房子是这张图纸，造一百万座房子也是这张图纸。Tim Hortons也一样，开三千家连锁店是这个品牌，开三万家连锁店还是这个品牌。加拿大4千万人口，重庆市3千多万人口，上海，北京，成都人口都超过2千万。中国一个城市消费的消费市场就相当于加拿大一个国家的消费市场。卖方只盯着加拿大市场，觉得卖得划算，买方看到了加拿大市场和中国市场，觉得买的划算。知识产业是市场越大价值越大。长期以来，加拿大公众认识中认为进入中国很危险，中国没有法制，盗窃知识产权等等。如今还有人说中国盗窃知识产权吗？加拿大现在新兴的手机支付有没有盗窃中国产权之嫌？华为5G是盗窃了北电知识产权？北电有5G吗？北电破产时世界上有5G吗？中国的超音速导弹是盗窃了知识产权吗？当初华为为加拿大创造很多工作岗位，北电破产后很多技术人员在华为找到了工作，就变成华为盗窃北电知识产权了？那么本田通用在加拿大制造汽车，雇佣加拿大技术人员和工程师，是否盗窃了加拿大知识产权？把中国电讯排斥到加拿大市场外有什么好处？加拿大市场竞争不激烈了，加拿大通讯成本全球最高之一，通讯成本高就是经济成本高，就损害了加拿大投资环境，就损害加拿大消费者，损害了加拿大经济。苹果、微软，IBM，特斯拉，GM，Ford，美国多少高科技公司在中国开工厂，进入中国市场，加拿大有什么高科技品牌害怕知识产权被盗？Tim Hortons？ 加拿大鹅？三星都不怕知识产权被盗窃，加拿大黑莓就怕？奥巴马之前，可以说世界上所有国际品牌都离不开美国市场。习近平以来，所以国际品牌都离不开中国市场。拒绝中国市场是加拿大经济决策最大的失误。把过去十多年经济疲软的责任都推到特鲁多一个人身上是有失公允的，制造敌视中国的公众认知是加拿大经济失败的决定性因素，而保守党在这方面是不遗余力。保守党的责任是防止执政党错误，但是，保守党在过去十多年是极力将自由党经济政策推向错误路线，那就是拒绝中国市场。逮捕孟晚舟是加拿大最大的决策错误。保守党当时对逮捕孟晚舟是什么态度？所谓“新疆屠杀”和“中国干涉”的子虚乌有也是保守党的杰作，制造了公众对华错误认知，对加拿大经济造成严重伤害。制造对中国敌意的公众认知使得加拿大一些商家自觉或不自觉地抵制中国产业链，造成许多加拿大知识产权过时作废。在科技进步日新月异的今天，犹豫一下不进入市场实现价值，就会被新技术淘汰。黑莓就是一例。加拿大痛失民族品牌Tim Hortons是另一例。加拿大人口与资源和瑞典相当，瑞典就有个宜家连锁店在加拿大卖得红红火火，宜家就是就是借助中国产业链的物流与营销的杰作，与沃尔玛有一比。为什么是瑞典人做的出依靠中国产业链的生意？加拿大的华裔比瑞典华裔多，为什么加拿大没有类似的商业呢？知识和技术扩散的人类文明进步的主要方式，害怕技术扩散到中国而裹足不前是加拿大经济失败的重要原因之一。

五、加拿大移民经济

做大做强加拿大的唯一正当途径就是发展经济。经济发展主要的要素是资源与劳动力。加拿大资源丰富，劳动力短缺。1966年加拿大工作年龄人口与老人的比例是7.7比1，2022年这个比例降到了3.4。即今天加拿大劳动力要负担的老年人比1966年增加了一倍多。原来7个人工作养一个老人，现在3个人工作养一个老人。加拿大劳动力的增加主要依靠移民。加拿大经济基础在于移民。但是，如今移民在加拿大是一个非常负面大概念，在公众认知中移民的加拿大的负担，把住房困难和犯罪率高升都归咎于移民，因此有了减少移民的政府政策。这就是加拿大政府领导能力出现了问题。常言道，韩信点兵多多益善。有能力的加拿大国家领导，应该是移民多多益善。其实，2018年之前的移民政策都是合理正常的，有技术移民，投资移民，留学生移民等维持加拿大经济的劳动力人口。但自从2020年以后，加拿大移民政策出现重大偏差。疫情期间，大批婴儿潮人口提前退休，一时间劳动力奇缺，尤其是医疗卫生和护理行业。出于印太战略的考量，加拿大降低了菲律宾和印度移民加拿大的门槛，印度和菲律宾移民激增。2019年香港暴乱，加拿大放开对香港移民的限制。这些移民是政治庇护移民，没有移民计点考核，来到加拿大就业比较难，加拿大福利体系成本就增加，所以这些新移民成为加拿大经济负担。2022年俄乌冲突，加拿大紧急发放9万多乌克兰签证。乌克兰青壮年都去打仗，来的加拿大的就不是劳动力，而是老幼妇孺。还有很多从美国徒步跨境进入加拿大的难民，政府对他们有高规格待遇，住满了尼加拉瓜瀑布的旅店，显然就是没有加拿大社会根基的移民，他们就业就比较困难。由于加拿大通过“新疆屠杀”法案，增加了维吾尔人移民数量，这些移民，就是东突在叙利亚打仗战死留下的遗孀及其子女，基本就是靠政府养着。这些极端主义分子在加拿大造成很大社会问题，而舆论引导把移民作为替罪羊。新移民融入社会有困难，不通过计点移民、技术移民和投资移民的就更困难，亲属移民有家庭支持，也是平稳移民，不会有社会问题。但是，加拿大大规模的接受难民和政治庇护，就给社会和政府造成重大负担。这些难民和政治庇护也是加拿大必须接收的，因为那是地缘政治运作的有机部分，NGO组织在地面深入当地民众支持美国地缘政治目制造了很多失败国家，造成大量难民。美国从阿富汗撤军时，就有很多帮助美军翻译和工作的阿富汗人需要移民西方，加拿大是参与了阿富汗军事行动的国家。这种瞒天过海，偷梁换柱，一边接受难民和庇护，一边减少移民的国家政策，是一个严重的错误，对加拿大经济和社会都将造成重大伤害。

2017年1月12日，多伦多士嘉堡-爱静阁一位11岁女孩谎称上学路上有个亚裔男孩两次剪她的头巾。女孩上午9点15分告诉学校，10点CBC就登出了报道文章。学校举行了新闻发布会让各主流媒体传播亚裔男孩剪女孩头巾的故事。仅仅几个小时，全加拿大举国震动。总理以及各个政党党魁纷纷在社交媒体推特谴责这起“歧视穆斯林”的行为。警察局立案仇恨罪调查不存在的亚裔男孩。1月15日，警察局公布结论，所谓剪头巾事件纯属子虚乌有。这小女孩的母亲带着遮脸的头巾，那身打扮是呆在家里不出去工作的。一个女人带两个小孩，全靠政府供养，而且很有影响力。小女孩撒谎几个小时就惊动了总理、省长和诸多政要，扰乱社会秩序，浪费政府钱财，政府竟然没有追究她母亲的责任。

移民拖累了加拿大经济？对，这些移民是地缘政治移民，不是经济移民。经济移民对经济有贡献，政治移民要耗费政府财政支出。而且制造社会分裂和摩擦，政府还得包庇宠着他们。

六、基础设施建设

1846年英国废除谷物法，英国不再保证购买加拿大商品。这和特朗普关税类似，就是加拿大原来依赖的无竞争市场忽然没有了。1869年加拿大购买了Rupert’s Land以后，就一直存在西部独立和西部并入美国两股分裂势力，美国的爱尔兰共和军不断入侵骚扰曼尼托巴。这和今天加拿大面对美国吞并的威胁是一样的。麦克唐纳总理制定了建国方略，建设太平洋铁路。今天加拿大也一样，要建设东西走向的基础设施，即是为了应对南方威胁，也是联通各省，统一加拿大市场。太平洋铁路的建设启动了加拿大工业革命，为加拿大工业革命建立了加拿大内循环市场。

经济增长要素除了资源和劳动力以外，还有资本。除了资本、资源和劳动力以外，还有全要素因子。即经济增长正比于资源、劳动力和资本的投入，正比的系数就是全要素。全要素因子越大，同样的要素投入拉动的产出就越大。这个全要素因子，就是基础设施，就是市场的畅通。

今天加拿大政客屡屡谈及联欧抗特朗普关税，但是，加拿大早在2017年就和欧洲签署了自贸协议CETA，然而，2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，欧洲急需的LNG加拿大就无法出口，原因是加拿大没有油管到大西洋。类似的案子比比皆是，加拿大加入了CPTPP自贸协议，但和亚洲经济联系却越来越弱。加拿大加入的自贸协议基本都是纸上谈兵，毫无用处。原因有两个，其一就是加拿大缺乏相应的基础设施，没有这些基础设施就无法盘活加拿的大资源；其二很多自贸协议不是经济协议，而是地缘政治协议，其外交活动本身不是为了加拿大经济，而是为了围堵中国，和对方签署自贸协议的本意并不是为了加拿大贸易，而是要协议对方减少和中国经济往来。CPTPP就是典型的例子。过去十多年里，加拿大经济与美国经济联系是越来越深，其它自贸协议完全是聋子的耳朵，只是个摆设。如今特朗普和普京眉来眼去，完全没有意识形态对立，加拿大也应该摈弃意识形态偏见，务实把经济搞上去。

七、区域经济

加拿大和美国经济联系是有点病态。由于美国和加拿大国境线长，加美贸易都走内陆，常年政治与舆论操作堵住了加拿大出海口。全世界各国经济热点都是沿海港口城市，加拿大沿海港口冷冷清清。大西洋省份更是经济落后，长期依赖政府均平政策补贴，搞的阿尔伯塔省怨声载道。富裕省份支持贫困省份是应该的，加拿大人就应该相互支持。但支持就应该授人以渔，而不是授人予鱼。授人予鱼使得经济落后省份产生依赖性，所谓贫穷是一种资源，贫穷成为向政府要钱的资本。既然加拿大意在于欧洲加强经济联系，仅仅油管到大西洋是不够的，油管到大西洋只是油气出口到欧洲，还应该发展大西洋沿海经济，对接欧洲产业链。大西洋省份如纽芬兰和爱德华王子岛，地理条件非常合适做自贸区，招商引资，阿省补贴大西洋省份应该是过渡性暂时的措施，应该是助力大西洋身份经济发展而不是陷入经济落后依赖补贴的死循环，造成大西洋省份依赖阿省补贴长期化。同理，既然加入了CPTPP，就应该发展太平洋沿岸经济。温哥华就应该成为经济活跃的大都市，温哥华岛就应该成为自贸区或特区，吸引国际投资。只有这些经济发展了，新移民才能就业，才能创造财富而不是消费财富。

特朗普用关税抢夺加拿大制造业，加拿大就应该用福特电力出口税把电力留在加拿大，降低加拿大电力成本，增加美国电力成本，把美国算力拉到加拿大来。那些内燃机汽车制造业已经是夕阳产业，流入美国不可惜。人工智能是朝阳产业，用加拿大丰富的电力资源建立数据中心和超算中心，服务北美AI新兴产业。加拿大AI人才增长速度在G7中最快，加拿大也可以用关税政策把美国算力吸引到加拿大。

加拿大水运资源也很丰富，圣劳伦河下游宽阔，直通大西洋和欧洲。加拿大苏必利尔湖的雷湾港可以装货3万多吨的船航行到欧洲。加拿大出口到欧洲的谷物和钾肥等都从这个港口运往欧洲。大湖区和圣劳伦河也可以开发邮轮旅游业。博励治政纲中要加强加拿大北极主权，卡尼也和澳大利亚签订60亿合同建立北极导弹防御系统。加拿大北极西北航道美国不承认，欧洲也不承认，西北航道一年最多也就是走十几艘货轮，实在冰太厚可通航时间太短。加拿大有60亿就应该优先建造大湖区和圣劳伦河的破冰船，保证这条水道四季通航，即联系魁省和安省经济，也促进加拿大外贸，促进沿岸经济发展。大湖区比北冰洋暖多了，不应该好高骛远，而应该脚踏实地发展经济。安省还可以考虑在哈德湾建设深水港，盘活安省北部矿藏。

结束语

特朗普上台改变了美国的战略，因此改变了世界格局。加拿大也应该根据世界格局的改变，调整国家战略，转意识形态为中心的外交为以经济为中心的外交。加拿大资源丰富，淡化意识形态务实的移民政策可以吸引人才和劳动力移民，在特朗普关税打压下振兴加拿大经济是走得通的。仅恢复加中友好，促进加中民间交往，就可以迅速恢复航空业和旅游业的繁荣，解决很多就业问题。经济增长了，政府预算才能平衡，人民生活才能改善。人民生活改善了，通胀、无家可归和犯罪率攀升等社会问题就迎刃而解了。

 

1. The Geopolitical Weaponization of US Trade Protectionism

The protectionist measures of the United States in the past were not economic measures, but geopolitical measures, that is, they used the name of protectionism to suppress the Chinese economy. Since Obama came to power, the United States has claimed that it would revive the manufacturing industry. Fifteen years later, the US manufacturing industry has been getting worse and worse. From the US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures against China to the 301 investigation and other trade and investment barriers, it seems to protect the US manufacturing industry, but in fact it is to contain China. In order to contain China, the United States also encouraged its allies and some swing countries to decouple from the Chinese economy. The actual effect of the entire operation is actually to distribute China’s market share in the United States to allies and countries that embarrass China. That is, China’s market share in the United States has decreased, but the market share of the US industry has not increased. The US market has only been redistributed among various countries. Therefore, the US manufacturing industry has not improved. Of course, there are many complex factors in the hollowing out of the US economy, but as far as US tariffs and trade barriers are concerned, these tariffs and barriers are just geopolitical weapons, not the implementation of revitalizing American manufacturing. On the grounds of national security, the United States banned the use of Huawei equipment and pressured its allies to refuse to use Huawei equipment, squeezing Huawei out of the Western market. Huawei’s US market was given to Apple, Samsung, Ericsson and others.

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is such a geopolitical arrangement. This agreement does not promote free trade, but excludes China from the North American market. So this agreement is called free trade, but it is actually North American protectionism, establishing an exclusive North American market. To persuade allies to decouple from the Chinese economy, you have to give them benefits. Without China’s competition in North America, the competition in the North American market has been reduced, which is good for manufacturing in the United States, Canada and Mexico. And the U.S. market that China has given up has also allowed Canada to get a bigger share of the U.S. market. This is not a market economy, but a rent-seeking economy. Canada has won the benefits of the U.S. market by helping the United States suppress China.

The US government has forced market allocation by building trade barriers against China and opening trade with Canada. The remaining market of China has been divided up by US allies, and the return of US manufacturing is still not significant. This is the result of geopolitics. Clinton once said: It’s the economy, stupid! The key to the dilemma of the return of US manufacturing is that everything is centered on suppressing China, and the policies formulated put the economy in a secondary position.

2. Trump Tariffs 2.0

In 2025, Trump took office as the US president. He started serious protectionist measures. He learned from the fallacy of the last trade war and understood President Clinton’s famous saying that this time the economy takes precedence over ideology. If geopolitics makes the US economy worse and worse, the government debt is getting higher and higher, and the government’s ability is getting lower and lower, what national interest can we talk about? Isn’t the national interest to make the country’s economy better and better? Therefore, this time Trump’s tariffs are imposed on all allies. This is a real trade barrier in the economic sense. It is wrong for the United States to engage in protectionism, which harms global economic interests. However, in terms of the return of manufacturing, it is right to impose the same taxes on all countries, and it is the right economic measure.

However, Canada and Europe feel very wronged. How can Trump betray his allies like this? The allies helped the United States suppress China, so the United States should take care of its allies. Therefore, the first reaction of Canadian politicians is to get close to the allies of the United States who suppress China, and use suppressing China to persuade the United States to cancel tariffs on Canada. If you don’t manage the household, you don’t know how expensive firewood and rice are. The United States has big difficulties. Trump’s policy towards China this time is to give priority to strengthening the United States to reverse the trend of China’s rise and the decline of the United States. Trump 1.0 gave priority to weakening China, and Trump 2.0 gave priority to strengthening the United States. There is a political benefit to giving priority to strengthening the United States. Even if the general trend between China and the United States cannot be reversed, it can make the United States stronger to realize his campaign promise of “making America great again”. With the hegemonic power of the United States, it is difficult to deal with China, but is there any problem with dealing with allies? To reverse the general trend between China and the United States, it would be best if China’s development can be suppressed while the United States develops. That is a two-pronged approach. However, if the United States develops slowly and cannot suppress China, then giving priority to the development of the United States is a second-best strategy. This is in line with Trump’s campaign slogans of “America First” (AF) and “Make America Great Again” (MAGA).

3. Canada’s Way Out

Canada should recognize the Trump AF and MAGA policies, the difference between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0, and the policy shift that the economy is prioritized over ideology. Ottawa has always been a supporter of Washington’s policies. This time, it should follow the transformation and accept President Clinton’s teaching that the economy is fundamental. It should not use ideology to harm Canada’s economic interests. Since the United States is no longer giving economic rent-seeking benefits, Canada is not obliged to continue to sacrifice its own economic interests to safeguard the geopolitical interests of the United States. If the United States can reconcile with Russia, why can’t Canada reconcile with China? The United States and Russia are in a state of conflict and confrontation in a proxy war. Is the Canada-China conflict as serious as the US-Russia conflict? When Nixon visited China, the ideologies of China and the United States were still in a state of sharp confrontation and there were no diplomatic relations. Now Canada and the United States and Canada and China have diplomatic relations. Canada-China relations are not without a way out. Why do politicians still hold on to the Trump 1.0 policy to bargain with Trump 2.0? A man of insight is a hero. Canadian politicians must make up for the lesson of recognizing the situation.

The most rational and dignified bargaining between Canadian politicians and Trump is the most-favored-nation treatment. Didn’t Trump impose tariffs on all countries? What Canada wants is that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Canada should not be higher than those imposed on other countries. It means that Trump should not have a policy that discriminates against Canada. As long as the United States treats all countries equally and does not discriminate against Canada, Canada is closer to the United States, deeply integrated with the US industrial chain, and will not lose to other countries outside the United States in the competition for the US market.

4. Canada’s road to becoming a powerful nation

Once the US tariffs are implemented, it is inevitable that Canadian manufacturing will be lost to the US. However, Canada is not completely helpless. Canada has superior resource endowments. Activating Canada’s abundant resources can make the Canadian economy strong and even revive Canada’s manufacturing industry. A country must have dignity. Canada cannot beg the United States to prioritize Canada, but should strive for self-improvement. The Canadian economy has been lackluster over the past decade because it has been tied to the US chariot, with its resources unable to enter the international market, and Canadian manufacturing has also lost the big Chinese market. The US market is a consumer market, which is not very important to Canada’s high-tech, while China is a manufacturing powerhouse with a very large high-tech market.

Canadian BlackBerry is the originator of smartphones. Now the Canadian market is full of Korean Samsung phones. Why? The reason is that Samsung is willing to enter the Chinese market, but Canada is unwilling to enter the Chinese market. BlackBerry wanted to enter the Chinese market later, but it was too late. Canada pioneered smartphones, but now there is no mobile phone brand, which is the result of rejecting the Chinese market. Tim Hortons, Canada’s most proud national brand, has always refused to enter the Chinese market, and was later sold to Burger King. The transaction can be completed if both the buyer and the seller think it is a good deal. Why does Tim Hortons think it is a good deal? Because the cash flow of this asset can be calculated. With long-term experience, it is certain how much the cash flow is and what value it is worth. If the buyer pays more than this value, it is worth selling. Why does the buyer think it is a good deal? Why does he think it is a good value? Because after Burger King bought Tim Hortons, it entered the Chinese market and made a fortune. A brand is an intellectual property, an intangible asset. The value of intellectual property will not decrease because of its use. Unlike tangible assets, which will decrease with every use, intellectual property will not decrease its value no matter how much it is used. Design a blueprint, the blueprint can be used to build one house or a million houses. Tim Hortons is the same. One can use the brand to open 3,000 chain stores or to open 30,000 chain stores. Canada has a population of 40 million, Chongqing has a population of more than 30 million, and Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu have a population of more than 20 million. The consumer market of a city in China is equivalent to the consumer market of Canada. The seller only focuses on the Canadian market and thinks it is a good deal to sell. The buyer sees the Canadian market and the Chinese market and thinks it is a good deal to buy. For intellectual property, the larger the market, the greater the value. For a long time, the Canadian public has believed that it is dangerous to enter China, that China has no legal system, and steals intellectual property rights. Is there still anyone saying that China steals intellectual property rights? Is there any suspicion that Canada’s emerging mobile payment is stealing Chinese property rights? Did Huawei 5G steal Nortel’s intellectual property rights? Does Nortel have 5G? When Nortel went bankrupt, was there 5G in the world? Did China’s hypersonic missiles steal intellectual property rights? Huawei created many jobs for Canada. After Nortel went bankrupt, many technicians found jobs at Huawei. Did this count as Huawei stealing Nortel’s intellectual property rights? So, Honda and GM are manufacturing cars in Canada and hiring Canadian technicians and engineers. Are they stealing Canadian intellectual property? What are the benefits of excluding Chinese telecommunications from the Canadian market? The Canadian market is not very competitive anymore. Canada’s communication costs are one of the highest in the world. High communication costs mean high economic costs, which damage Canada’s investment environment, Canadian consumers, and the Canadian economy. Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Tesla, GM, Ford, and many high-tech companies of the United States have opened factories in China and entered the Chinese market. Which high-tech brands of Canada are afraid of intellectual property theft? Tim Hortons? Canada Goose? Samsung is not afraid of intellectual property theft, but BlackBerry in Canada is? Before Obama, it can be said that all international brands in the world could not do without the US market. Since Xi Jinping, all international brands cannot do without the Chinese market. Rejecting the Chinese market is the biggest mistake in Canada’s economic decision-making. It is unfair to put the blame for the economic weakness over the past decade on Trudeau alone. Creating a public perception of hostility towards China is the decisive factor in Canada’s economic failure, and the Conservative Party has spared no effort in this regard. The Conservative Party’s responsibility is to prevent the ruling party from making mistakes. However, in the past decade or so, the Conservative Party has been trying hard to push the Liberal Party’s economic policy to the wrong path, that is, to reject the Chinese market. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou is Canada’s biggest decision-making mistake. What was the Conservative Party’s attitude towards the arrest of Meng Wanzhou at that time? The so-called “Xinjiang massacre” and “Chinese interference” are also the masterpieces of the Conservative Party, which have created a wrong public perception of China and caused serious damage to the Canadian economy. The public perception of hostility towards China has caused some Canadian businesses to consciously or unconsciously boycott the Chinese supply chain, causing many Canadian intellectual property rights to become obsolete. In today’s world of rapid technological progress, if you hesitate to enter the market and realize your value, you will be eliminated by new technologies. Blackberry is an example. Canada’s loss of its national brand Tim Hortons is another example. Canada’s population and resources are comparable to Sweden’s. Sweden has an IKEA chain store that sells well in Canada. IKEA is a masterpiece of logistics and marketing based on Chinese manufacture, comparable to Walmart. Why are Swedes able to do business that relies on the Chinese industrial chain? There are more Chinese in Canada than in Sweden, so why doesn’t Canada have similar businesses? The spread of knowledge and technology is the main way for human civilization to progress. The fear of technology spreading to China and the resulting hesitation in moving forward are one of the important reasons for Canada’s economic failure.

5. Canadian Immigration Economy

The only legitimate way to make Canada bigger and stronger is to develop the economy. The main factors of economic development are resources and labor. Canada is rich in resources and short of labor. In 1966, the ratio of working-age population to elderly people in Canada was 7.7 to 1, and this ratio dropped to 3.4 in 2022. That is, the number of elderly people that the Canadian labor force has to bear today has more than doubled compared to 1966. Originally, 7 people worked to support one elderly person, but now 3 people work to support one elderly person. The increase in Canada’s labor force mainly depends on immigration. Canada’s economic foundation relies on immigration. However, immigration is now a very negative perception in Canada. In the public’s perception, immigrants are a burden on Canada, and housing difficulties and rising crime rates are attributed to immigrants. Therefore, there is a government policy to reduce immigration. This is a problem with the leadership of the Canadian government. As the saying goes, a good general can commend an unlimited number of soldiers, the more, the better. A capable Canadian national leader should have no problem with more immigrants. In fact, immigration policies before 2018 were reasonable and normal, with technic immigrants, investment immigrants, and international student immigrants to maintain the labor force population of the Canadian economy. But since 2020, Canada’s immigration policy has deviated significantly. During the pandemic, a large number of baby boomers retired early, and there was a severe shortage of labor, especially in the health and nursing industries. Considering the Indo-Pacific strategy, Canada lowered the threshold for immigration to Canada from the Philippines and India, and the number of immigrants from India and the Philippines surged. In the 2019 Hong Kong riots, Canada granted asylum to Hong Kongers. These immigrants are political asylum immigrants, and there is no immigration point assessment. It is difficult for them to find jobs in Canada, and the cost of Canada’s welfare system has increased, so these new immigrants have become a burden on Canada’s economy. In the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Canada urgently issued more than 90,000 Ukrainian visas. The young and middle-aged people in Ukraine all went to fight, and those who came to Canada were not laborers, but the elderly, children, and women. There are also many refugees who cross Roxham Rd. from the United States to Canada on foot. The government treats them with high standards and takes them to the hotels in Niagara Falls. Obviously, they are immigrants without Canadian social roots, and it is more difficult for them to find jobs. Because Canada passed the “Xinjiang Massacre” bill, the number of Uyghur immigrants has increased. These immigrants are the widows and children left behind by the East Turkestan Movement who died in the war in Syria. They are basically supported by the government. These extremists have caused great social problems in Canada, and public opinion has used immigrants as scapegoats. It is difficult for new immigrants to integrate into society, and it is even more difficult for those who do not pass the point-based immigration, technic immigration and investment immigration. Family immigration has family support and is also a stable immigration without social problems. However, Canada’s large-scale acceptance of refugees and political asylum has placed a heavy burden on society and the government. These refugees and political asylums must also be accepted by Canada because they are an organic part of geopolitical operations. NGOs have gone deep into the grassroots on the ground to support the geopolitical goals of the United States, creating many failed countries and causing a large number of refugees. When the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, many Afghans who helped the US military translate and work needed to immigrate to the West. Canada was a country that participated in the military operations in Afghanistan. This kind of national policy of accepting refugees and asylums while reducing immigration is a serious mistake, which will cause great harm to Canada’s economy and society.

On January 12, 2017, an 11-year-old girl in Scarborough-Agincourt, Toronto, lied that an Asian boy cut her hijab twice on the way to school. The girl told the school at 9:15 a.m., and CBC published the report at 10 a.m. The school held a press conference to let mainstream media spread the story of the Asian boy cutting the girl’s hijiab. In just a few hours, the whole of Canada was shocked. The Prime Minister and leaders of various political parties condemned this “discrimination against Muslims” on social media Twitter. The police department opened a hate crime investigation against the non-existent Asian boy. On January 15, the police department announced the conclusion that the so-called hijab-cutting incident was completely fictitious. The mother of the little girl wore a hijab that covered her face, the dress showed that the woman stayed at home and did not go out to work. A woman with two children, all supported by the government, and very influential. The little girl lied for a few hours and alarmed the Prime Minister, the Premier and many politicians, disrupting social order and wasting government money, but the government did not hold her mother accountable.

Do immigrants drag down the Canadian economy? Yes, these immigrants are geopolitical immigrants, not economic immigrants. Economic immigrants contribute to the economy, while political immigrants cost the government money. They also create social divisions and frictions, and the government has to protect and pamper them.

VI. Infrastructure Construction

In 1846, Britain abolished the Corn Laws and was no longer guaranteed to buy Canadian goods. This is similar to Trump’s tariffs, in that the non-competitive market that Canada relied on suddenly disappeared. After Canada purchased Rupert’s Land in 1869, there have always been two separatist forces: Western independence and Western integration into the United States. The Fenians repeatedly raided Manitoba. This is the same as the threat of annexation that Canada faces from the United States today. Prime Minister MacDonald formulated a national construction strategy and built the Pacific Railway. Today, Canada is the same. It is necessary to build east-west infrastructure, not only to deal with threats from the south but also to connect provinces and unify the Canadian market. The construction of the Pacific Railway launched the Canadian Industrial Revolution and established a Canadian internal circulation market for the Canadian Industrial Revolution.

In addition to resources and labor, the economic growth factor also includes capital. In addition to capital, resources, and labor, there is also the total factor. That is, economic growth is proportional to the input of resources, labor, and capital, and the proportional coefficient is the total factor. The larger the total factor factor, the greater the output driven by the same factor input. This total factor factor is the infrastructure and the smooth flow of the market.

Today, Canadian politicians have repeatedly talked about joining forces with Europe to resist Trump’s tariffs. But Canada signed the CETA free trade agreement with Europe as early as 2017. However, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Canada has been unable to export LNG, which is urgently needed by Europe, because Canada has no oil pipeline to the Atlantic Ocean. Similar cases are everywhere. Canada has joined the CPTPP free trade agreement, but its economic ties with Asia are getting weaker and weaker. The free trade agreements that Canada has joined are basically paper talks and useless. There are two reasons. One is that Canada lacks the corresponding infrastructure. Without these infrastructures, Canada’s huge resources cannot be activated; second, many free trade agreements are not economic agreements, but geopolitical agreements. Their diplomatic activities themselves are not for the Canadian economy, but for the containment of China. The original intention of signing a free trade agreement with the other party is not for Canadian trade, but to lure the other party to reduce economic exchanges with China. CPTPP is a typical example. Over the past decade, the economic ties between Canada and the United States have become deeper and deeper. Other free trade agreements are completely deaf’s ears and are just decorations. Today, Trump and Putin are flirting with each other and there is no ideological confrontation at all. Canada should also abandon its ideological prejudice and pragmatically develop its economy.

VII. Regional Economy

The economic ties between Canada and the United States are a bit pathological. Due to the long border between the United States and Canada, Canada-US trade all goes inland, and long-term political and public opinion manipulation has blocked Canada’s access to the sea. The economic hotspots of countries around the world are coastal port cities, while Canada’s coastal ports are deserted. The Atlantic provinces are even more economically backward and have long relied on government subsidies for equalization policies, which has caused complaints from Alberta. It is right for wealthy provinces to support poor provinces, and Canadians should support each other. But support should be to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish. Giving people fish makes economically backward provinces dependent. The so-called poverty is a resource, and poverty becomes a bargaining chip for asking the government for money. Since Canada intends to strengthen economic ties with Europe, it is not enough to just have an oil pipeline to the Atlantic. The oil pipeline to the Atlantic is just for exporting oil and gas to Europe. It should also develop the Atlantic coastal economy and connect with the European supply chain. Atlantic provinces such as Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island have very suitable geographical conditions for free trade zones and investment attraction. Alberta’s subsidies to Atlantic provinces should be transitional and temporary measures, which should help the development of the Atlantic identity economy instead of falling into a vicious cycle of economic backwardness and dependence on subsidies, causing Atlantic provinces to rely on Alberta subsidies for a long time. Similarly, since we have joined the CPTPP, we should develop the Pacific Coast economy. Vancouver should become an economically active metropolis, and Vancouver Island should become a free trade zone or special economic zone to attract international investment. Only when these economies develop can new immigrants find jobs and create wealth instead of consuming it.

Trump is using tariffs to snatch Canadian manufacturing. Canada should use Ford’s electricity export surcharge to keep electricity in Canada, reduce Canadian electricity costs, increase American electricity costs, and bring American computing power to Canada. The internal combustion engine automobile manufacturing industry is already a sunset industry, and it is not a pity to flow into the United States. Artificial intelligence is a sunrise industry. Use Canada’s abundant electricity resources to host data centers and supercomputing centers to serve the emerging AI industry in North America. Canada’s AI talent growth rate is the fastest among the G7. Canada can also use tariff policies to attract American computing power to Canada.

Canada also has abundant water transport resources. The lower reaches of the St. Lawrence River are wide and directly connected to the Atlantic Ocean and Europe. The Thunder Bay Port on Lake Superior in Canada can load ships with more than 30,000 tons of cargo to freight to Europe. Canada’s grain and potash fertilizers exported to Europe are all shipped from this port to Europe. The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River can also develop cruise tourism. Poilievre’s political platform calls for strengthening Canada’s Arctic sovereignty, and Carney has also signed a 6 billion contract with Australia to build an Arctic missile defense system. The Northwest Passage in Canada’s Arctic is not recognized by the United States or Europe. At most, only a dozen cargo ships can pass through the Northwest Passage each year because the ice is too thick and the navigation time is too short. Canada should give priority to building icebreakers in the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River with 6 billion to ensure that this waterway is navigable all year round, which will connect the economies of Quebec and Ontario, promote Canada’s foreign trade, and promote the development of the coastal economy. The Great Lakes are much warmer than the Arctic Ocean, so we should not be too ambitious, but should develop the economy down to earth. Ontario can also consider building a deep-water port in Hudson Bay to activate the mineral deposits in northern Ontario.

Conclusion

Trump’s coming to power has changed the US strategy and thus the world structure. Canada should also adjust its national strategy in accordance with the changes in the world pattern, and transform its ideology-centered diplomacy into an economy-centered diplomacy. Canada is rich in resources, and it’s pragmatic immigration policy that downplays ideology can attract talent and labor immigrants. It is feasible to revitalize the Canadian economy under the pressure of Trump’s tariffs. Simply restoring Canada-China friendship and promoting people-to-people exchanges between Canada and China can quickly restore the prosperity of the aviation industry and tourism industries and solve many urgent employment problems. Only when the economy grows can the government budget be balanced and people’s lives can be improved. When people’s lives improve, social problems such as inflation, homelessness and rising crime rates can be easily resolved.