拜登芯片出口管制引发高科技产业裁员潮(Biden’s chip export controls trigger wave of layoffs in the high-tech industry)

Xiaoming Guo 郭晓明

 

2022年10月7日,拜登政府签署一系列法规,长臂管辖禁止全世界芯片技术出口到中国,禁止高端芯片出口中国。10月21日这些禁令正式生效,美国没有说制裁中国高科技产业,但美国的这些禁令比所有制裁都更严厉更周密。美国此举是对全球科技产业的严重打击。10月7日签署法令,10月10日苹果、台积电和三星的股价应声暴跌。 芯片是高科技龙头产业,这个产业忽然没有了一个巨大的市场,引发了高科技产业的裁员潮。彭博社10月11日报道,芯片巨头因特尔预计要裁员20%。

On October 7, 2022, the Biden administration signed a series of regulations. The long-arm jurisdiction prohibits the export of chip technology from all over the world to China and prohibits the export of high-end chips to China. These bans came into effect on October 21. The United States did not mention sanctioning China’s high-tech industry, but these bans are stricter and more thorough than all sanctions. The U.S. move is a serious blow to the global technology industry. The decree was signed on October 7, and the stock prices of Apple, TSMC, and Samsung plummeted on October 10. Chips are a leading high-tech industry. This industry suddenly lost a huge market, which triggered a wave of layoffs in the high-tech industry. Bloomberg reported on October 11 that chip giant Intel is expected to lay off 20% of its workforce.

 

受拜登对华芯片战影响,截至10月21日微软已经裁员过千,ARM也预计裁员12%-15%,也是裁减过千职位。扎克伯格雄心勃勃的元宇宙(Metaverse)市值曾高达万亿,在拜登芯片出口法打击下,11月份市值只剩下2560亿,缩水近75%,为此元宇宙要裁员13%,裁减1万1千职员。元宇宙不仅仅靠软件,元宇宙需要各种硬件终端设备,需要芯片。元宇宙本来是福特省长引入外资的骄傲,元宇宙原本计划在加拿大创造2千5百就业岗位,现在看来难以实现了。

Affected by Biden’s chip war against China, Microsoft has laid off thousands of employees as of October 21, and ARM is also expected to lay off 12%-15% of its employees, which is also cutting thousands of positions. Zuckerberg’s ambitious Metaverse once had a market value of trillions. Under the impact of Biden’s chip export law, the market value in November was only 256 billion, shrinking by nearly 75%. For this reason, Metaverse will lay off 13% of its employees. 11,000 staff cuts. The Metaverse does not only rely on software but also various hardware terminal devices and chips. The Metaverse was originally the pride of Governor Ford for introducing foreign capital. The Metaverse originally planned to create 2,500 jobs in Toronto, but now it seems difficult to achieve.

 

拜登对华芯片战不是2022年10月开始的,拜登对华芯片战是孟晚舟案以后对华为制裁的升降,华为原本在加拿大有很多研发投资,这些投资在美国压力下被迫撤资。2022年5月加拿大就封禁华为和中兴的5G技术。5、6两个月北美科技产业就裁减了2万技术职业,裁员企业包括苹果、亚马逊、元宇宙等等。媒体称这些裁员是由于新冠疫情,这是谎言。疫情推动了网购跨越式发展,亚马逊网购业务激增,疫情期间人们更多使用远程工作和教育,使用云端社交,是苹果和元宇宙的大好商机。真实的情况是芯片,芯片短缺沉重打击汽车制造业,当然也打击这些以来芯片的科技产业。芯片产业是科技产业核心产业,其上下游产业链波及众多科技产业。美国制裁中国芯片产业,使得全球科技产业成本大增,如公司使用的个人电脑价格上涨等,迫使科技公司缩减业务,大批裁员。7月份加拿大电商Shopify就宣布10%裁员,裁减职员上千。新冠疫情期间当然是电商发展大好时机,说科技业裁员是受疫情影响过于牵强,当然,通胀使得消费市场萎缩有可能是科技业裁员因素之一,但通胀也是经济与中国脱钩的必然产物。中国是全球经济引擎,对全球经济发展贡献最大,和中国经济脱钩就是为难本国经济。科技创新研发成本高周期长,必须有大市场来分摊研发成本。美国对华高科技禁运战急剧减小了众多科技产业研发项目的商业可行性,这是科技产业裁员潮的经济逻辑,创新产业也因此受到重创。BetaKit2022年8月15日一篇报道称,2022年全球创新小企业裁员近7万。滑铁卢是加拿大的硅谷,创新企业裁员对滑铁卢就业冲击巨大。2022年11月4日美国统计局发布就业报告,称美国增加了26万新就业岗位,但那不是科技产业岗位,科技产业岗位的裁员潮才刚刚开始,科技公司还在纷纷裁员。11月14日,亚马逊宣布要裁员上万。最惊人的当属马斯克新官上任三把火,收购了推特后就裁员50%

Biden’s chip war against China did not start in October 2022. Biden’s chip war against China is the rise and fall of sanctions on Huawei after the Meng Wanzhou case. Huawei originally had a lot of R&D investment in Canada, and these investments were forced to divest under pressure from the United States. In May 2022, Canada banned Huawei and ZTE’s 5G technology. In the two months of May and June, the North American technology industry cut off 20,000 tech occupations, and the layoffs included Apple, Amazon, Metaverse, and so on. The media claiming that these layoffs are due to COVID-19 is a lie. The epidemic has promoted the leapfrog development of online shopping. Amazon’s online shopping business has surged. During the epidemic, people used more remote work and education and used cloud social networking. This is a great business opportunity for Apple and Metaverse. The real cause is the Biden chip war. The shortage of chips has hit the automobile manufacturing industry hard, and of course, it has also hit the technology industry which relies on chips. The chip industry is the core industry of the technology industry, and its upstream and downstream supply chains affect many technology industries. The United States sanctioned China’s chip industry, which has greatly increased the cost of the global technology industry, such as the increase in the price of personal computers used by companies, forcing technology companies to reduce their business and lay off a large number of employees. In July, the Canadian e-commerce company Shopify announced 10% layoffs, laying off thousands of employees. The COVID-19 pandemic is of course a good time for the development of e-commerce. It is too far-fetched to say that layoffs in the technology industry are affected by the epidemic. Of course, the shrinking consumer market caused by inflation may be one of the factors for layoffs in the technology industry, but inflation is also an inevitable outcome of the decoupling of the economy from China. China is the engine of the global economy and contributes the most to the development of the global economy. Decoupling China’s economy will embarrass its own economy. The R&D cost of scientific and technological innovation is high and the cycle is long, so there must be a large market to spread the R&D cost. The U.S. high-tech embargo against China has drastically reduced the commercial viability of many R&D projects in the technology industry. This is the economic logic of layoffs in the technology industry, and innovative industries have also been hit hard. BetaKit reported on August 15, 2022, that start-ups around the world had laid off nearly 70,000 employees in 2022. Waterloo is Canada’s Silicon Valley, and layoffs by start-up companies have had a huge impact on employment in Waterloo. On November 4, 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau released an employment report, saying that the United States has added 260,000 new jobs, but those are not technology industry jobs. The wave of layoffs in technology industry jobs has just begun, and technology companies are still laying off employees one after another. On November 14, Amazon announced that it would lay off tens of thousands of employees. The most astonishing thing is Musk’s execution. After acquiring Twitter, he laid off 50% of its staff.

 

在美国长臂管辖范围内,全球出现科技产业裁员潮,这是加拿大技术移民的严冬。唯有中国科技产业还是就业市场一片蓝天,中国科技人员薪金大增。美国对华科技战,再现乌克兰战争中制裁俄罗斯反而伤害欧洲的反噬现象。加拿大2019年7月就有了邱香果团队被解散事件,三年多过去了,皇家骑警至今没有提供有关邱香果间谍嫌疑的任何证据,2022年11月14日又以间谍罪拘留魁北克电力的华裔研究员王跃生,华裔科技人员频频遭无端迫害。海外科技华人面临巨大就业屏障。在此经济形势和政治气氛双重压力下,越来越多的中国留学生做出了归国就业的决定。