Xiaoming Guo 郭晓明
How could a Chinese economic collapse happen? How would it affect the US?
The collapse of the Chinese economy will save the Dollar bubble, and China refuses to collapse. The situation between China and the US today is very similar to the situation between China and the UK before the Opium War. Before the Opium War, China had a long period of trade surplus with the UK because the UK imported tea, silk, and porcelain from China. The silver of the world virtually all flowed into China and the UK had financial difficulty just like the US has a financial difficulty today. So the UK waged the Opium War to force China to import opium. The flow of silver reversed. The silver flowed out of China because of the import of opium. So China collapsed economically for more than a hundred years until 1979 China’s Reform and Open.
Every time an economic crash, there accompanied a wealth redistribution. The US tried hard to crash China so the wealth would flow into the US for the rescue of the skyrocketing government debt, Just as the Opium war rescued the UK from their debts.
China, on the other hand, doesn’t want to change the present international order because China benefits from the present international order. China benefited from globalization. So the US deglobalization to crash China. China benefited from the WTO, so the US had been ignoring the rules of WTO to enforce unfair trade regulations, specifically, restructuring the supply chains to block the development of China in the high tech, more specifically, the chip war. When the US is using sanctions in such high frequency and such high intensity and such high magnitude, it is destroying the present international order.
Yet, China is not collapsing. China will not collapse even if the US collapses.
Since Obama’s pivot to Asia, later renamed Asia rebalance, later renamed Into-Pacific strategy, the US has been aiming to crash China to save the US from the 2008 financial tsunami. But all failed, including the recent chip war. As a result, the US debt has been increasing exponentially. Next year the US will have to raise the debt ceiling again if the US does not crash yet. The US economy is good, better than most of its allies, due to its military industry profiting from the Ukraine War and Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But this “good” economy adds no wealth to the world economy. Instead, the US’ “good” economy destroys wealth in the world economy. The “better” the US’ economy, the worse the world economy. The US enjoys the worse world economy because it aimed to crash China’s economy.
The Chinese economy is still growing, together with countries joining the BRI. The US, together with its allies, cannot destroy the Chinese economy because China now is building a shared future with countries joining the BRI. The economy of China, together with the area and countries of BRI, is creating wealth in the world economy, not destroying wealth. That’s why crashing China is a mission impossible. Why would every country want to destroy wealth and make the economy worse? The living standard of the US and its allies are getting worse and worse since Trump waged the trade war against China while that of China and BRI countries is getting better.
When the US is trying to make China collapse, it destroys the international rules and makes the world economy worse. When the US destroys, China constructs to save the world. When the US destroys the international rules, China establishes better rules.
How could a Chinese economic collapse happen? No way. Trying to make it happen is backfiring. It makes the US decline faster and China rise faster. Don’t need to believe what I say. Just to examine what the world has changed since Trump waged the trade war and made the new Cold War blunt. Just sit and observe the manifesting of the world evolving. We are witnessing history.